对外开放、产业结构与中国森林公园旅游效率

借助DEA方法对2008~2014年中国大陆31个省份的森林公园旅游效率进行测算,并且采用Tobit模型重点研究对外开放、产业结构对中国森林公园旅游效率的影响。研究发现:中国森林公园旅游效率总体较高,但是省域之间差别较大;对外开放程度对中国森林公园旅游效率具有倒U型的显著影响,即对外开放程度对于森林公园旅游效率的边际贡献存在递减效应;产业结构(第一产业比例)对中国森林公园旅游资源利用效率具有显著的负向影响,即产业结构高级化成为推动旅游效率改善的内在因素。森林公园密度、城市人口密度对中国森林公园旅游效率具有显著地正向影响;南方林区与西南林区相对于华北林区来说,优越的地理条件更容易提高森林公园旅游资源的利用效率。基于研究提出开放程度较低的地区需要积极扩大对外开放水平;加速产业结构调整,推动产业结构合理化,以期带动森林公园旅游资源的利用效率。     

Consumer Preferences for Coffee: Hot and Wet,or Quality and Flavor?

An econometric model is developed and estimated for all brands of coffee sold at the retail level in four supermarkets in Columbus, Ohio. These brands are segmented into 24 categories, and the four stores are classified into two groups, inner-city and suburban, based on 2010 census tract data. Using estimated measures of price-sensitivity, these 24 categories are further segmented into four groups to help guide and clarify the discussion. Estimated results show different purchasing patterns and different levels of price-sensitivity for inner-city and suburban shoppers. Further, these purchasing patterns and levels of price-sensitivity suggest alternative marketing strategies for retailers. Private-label coffee brands are shown to be quite competitive with many national brands, and indeed private-label brands command a market share among inner-city shoppers that is more than double that for the nation (21.95% vs. 9%).     

Co-ordination of land exploitation,exploitable farmland reserves and national planning in China

Land exploitation, as an important strategy to mitigate farmland loss and stabilize grain production, has been adopted to compensate farmland loss due to rapid urbanization in China. Bounded by the limited capacity and obvious spatial variations of national farmland reserves, it is essential to arrange land exploitation activities timely and reasonably. In this study, we propose an indicator for the status of regional land exploitation, the Exploitation Degree, to facilitate an overview of land exploitation programs in China at both provincial and prefectural levels based on project data from 2006 to 2012. To further our understanding of the regional features of land exploitation activities, we employ the Lasso model to identify and quantitatively assess influencing factors on land exploitation. Our study shows that: (1) contemporary land exploitation practices in China are significantly inconsistent across exploitable farmland reserves. Some areas are greatly over-exploited and such irrational land exploitation has been persistent; (2) related national land plans designed to guide land exploitation efforts centered on resource-rich regions and critical areas do not function as intended. Therefore, we suggest that China⿿s land exploitation policy shall be improved by reconsidering the orientation of land exploitation policy, coordinating land exploitation activities with productivity improvements and eco-system protection, and enhancing the power and scope of the plans in controlling and guiding land resource management.     

Modifying and applying time and cost blocks: The case of E-Da theme park,Kaohsiung, Taiwan

The main purpose of this study is to modify and apply a management tool called time and cost blocks (TCB). The model was modified to adjust how the “benefit indicator” was measured and further enhanced by inclusion of visitor satisfaction scores and revisiting intention. Data collection was accomplished by means of a diary-type semi-structured questionnaire, which was administered in face-to-face interviews with 655 visitors of the E-Da World theme park in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The results indicate that participation intensity (PI) and benefit indicator (BI) have a significant relationship with satisfaction and revisiting intention.     

Sentiment,mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

The Informational Role of Short Sellers: The Evidence from Short Sellers’ Reports on US‐Listed Chinese Firms

Using US‐listed Chinese firms as the setting, this paper studies a novel channel through which investors can acquire information about firms’ financial reporting quality, that is, the reports published voluntarily by short sellers. I find that short sellers tend to target firms that have financial reporting red flags and that exhibit ‘good’ operating performance and stock valuations. Targeted firms experience an average three‐day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of ?6.4%, and ?13.6% for initial coverage of the firm, and the CARs are more negative when the reports allege more severe misconduct of the firms. Non‐targeted firms also experience losses in value following short seller reports, especially when they hire the same non‐Big 4 auditors as targeted firms and when their earnings quality is poor. In comparison, analysts fail to perform proper due diligence and are much less effective than short sellers in exposing misreporting risk in Chinese firms.     

Factors influencing theme park visitor brand-switching behaviour as based on visitor perception

With the development of theme parks, which represent a multi-million-pound industry worldwide, research investigating the factors affecting theme park visitor brand-switching behaviour is an important method for improving theme park competitiveness. In the present work, models and research hypothesis are constructed based on visitor perception, and the survey data are collected and analysed to assess the hypothesis and to revise the conceptual model in this paper. The results indicate that there are seven factors influencing visitor brand-switching behaviour: ‘visitor variety-seeking', ‘visitor satisfaction', ‘switching cost', ‘perceived value', ‘competitor attraction', ‘theme park image' and ‘visitor involvement'. The perceived value and visitor satisfaction strongly influence brand-switching behaviour as intermediate variables. Visitor variety-seeking and competitor attraction are positively related to visitor brand switching behaviour, whereas the other five factors are negatively related to visitor brand-switching behaviour.     

Net Equity and Debt Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies in the Post-Crisis Era

We investigate the determinants of net equity and debt flows into 60 emerging and developing countries during 1986–2012, with a special focus on the period following the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Our results controlling for endogeneity show that net equity flows to emerging markets were mostly influenced by global risk factors, while net debt flows were affected by country-specific factors. We further distinguish the factors that were more pronounced in determining net portfolio flows to emerging markets since the GFC. The US real interest rate had significant spillover effects on net equity flows after the GFC. An increase in country’s domestic credit attracted net debt inflows before the GFC, while it was associated with net equity outflows after the GFC. We also find that capital controls moderated net debt flows since the GFC.     

Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors

This study evaluates the dynamic interactions among the housing market and ten key US sectors including: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, industrial, technology, health care, materials, utility and telecommunications. Long-run results indicate that the housing market is integrated with each of the ten sector and that the degree of convergence has increased over time and especially after the onset of the most recent housing crisis. Moreover, the housing market contributes most heavily to the common trends indicating that the housing market is the ‘leader’ market that drives each sector towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate causal linkages emanating from the housing market to each sector with reciprocal feedback. Finally, impulse response function analysis reveal that shocks from each sector affect the housing market but that shocks from the housing market have a (comparatively) more profound and persistent impact on each sector.